The question is not whether another pandemic will occur, but when. While the timing and location of the next outbreak remain unpredictable, we can strengthen our readiness by understanding and anticipating the risks, drivers, and potential impacts of emerging infectious diseases. This is the objective of the Pandemic Risk Assessment (PRA) initiative - an effort led by the United Nations Foundation and the U.S. National Academy of Medicine. The PRA initiative aims to systematically integrate evidence from epidemiological, biological, environmental, and social sciences to inform smarter policy decisions and strategic investments in pandemic preparedness.
On 15–16 July 2026, the United Nations Foundation and the U.S. National Academy of Medicine, with co-hosts Singapore’s Communicable Diseases Agency and Temasek Foundation and partners including PAX sapiens and the Duke-NUS Medical School Centre for Outbreak Preparedness (COP), convened an expert workshop to further advance the PRA initiative in Asia. Over sixty leading scientists and policymakers gathered in Singapore to refine the PRA prototype and align it with Asia’s regional priorities, opportunities, and challenges.
Co-hosted by the Communicable Diseases Agency, Singapore, and Temasek Foundation, the workshop took place at the Temasek Shophouse in Singapore.
The two-day workshop opened with an overview of the PRA initiative’s rationale and progress. Participants discussed the scientific feasibility of assessing pandemic risk from the earliest stages of emergence through initial transmission, and considered how to estimate the broader health and societal consequences. The group explored ways to integrate diverse data sources into a robust, holistic PRA and identified how the tool can serve as a practical resource for policymakers and decision-makers.
On the second day, breakout sessions focused on technical and policy perspectives, delving into the unique opportunities and challenges for pandemic risk assessment in the Asian context. The workshop concluded with a collaborative session to consolidate insights and chart next steps for refining the PRA and fostering ongoing regional collaboration.
Dr. Bridget Kelly, Burke-Kelly Consulting, sets the stage for Day 2 of the workshop.
Key insights
Key insights from the workshop include:
- Complementing surveillance: The PRA is designed to complement – not replace - surveillance and monitoring systems, to better inform planning and decision-making.
- Asia’s unique position: The Asia region presents a unique convergence of resources and vulnerabilities, being both a hub of capital and capacity as well as a known hotspot for zoonotic disease emergence.
- Building trust amidst uncertainty: To be effective, the PRA must be scientifically rigorous, contextually relevant, and transparent about its assumptions and uncertainties.
- The emergence cascade: By mapping the emergence cascade, from spillover to local establishment to global spread, an “event catalogue” can be built that translates synthesised scientific evidence into actionable insights for decision-makers.
- The need for data integration: Standardised, accessible databases are needed in order to identify patterns and trends in the interaction of environmental, animal, pathogen, and human factors that drive pandemic risk.
- Holistic perspectives: Pandemic risk is shaped not only by biological interactions but also by human behaviour, trust, and perceptions of risk. A comprehensive PRA requires cross-sectoral collaboration, integrating the behavioural, social, economic, environmental, biological, and epidemiological sciences.
- Multi-level collaboration: Effective risk assessment depends on co-creation and collaboration across global, regional, and national levels – each scale reinforcing the others.
Workshop participants engage in the technical track breakout session.
The COVID-19 pandemic starkly demonstrated that pandemics create not just health consequences, but also devastating economic and social impacts. As factors like climate change and increased human mobility reshape the risk landscape, the PRA initiative offers a timely opportunity to identify, measure, and mitigate the most significant threats. By bringing together expertise from across disciplines and regions, the PRA builds the case for sustained, long-term investment in pandemic preparedness. Through bridging science and policy, we can make informed decisions today to ensure that when – not if – the next pandemic arrives, we are better prepared.
Members of the COP team, from left to right: Fahmi Abdul Rahim, Jingyi Lei, Dr. Miruna Rosu, Professor Paul Pronyk, Assistant Professor Suci Wulandari, Dr. Maya Getchell, Natasha Tai, Ashley Tsai, Assistant Professor Khoo Yoong Khean, Dr. Tom Carpino.